CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)…is located 55 miles southwest of Florence, South Carolina
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)…is located 315 miles north-northwest of Faial Island in the western Azores
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Joyce)…is located 695 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Tropical Storm Florence
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 67…Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, Florence’s center will move across the western Carolinas Sunday and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the center moves farther inland, and Florence is expected to become a tropical depression early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles to the east of the center near the coast and over water. Within the past hour or so, a sustained wind of 39 mph with a gust to 51 mph was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph was recently reported near Chester, South Carolina.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
STORM SURGE:Water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is still possible through Sunday.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas… Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast South Carolina…an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro, North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has fallen so far. That rainfall total breaks the tropical cyclone rainfall record of 24.06 inches for North Carolina set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Storm 08L (Helene)
According to the NHC Advisory 35…Helene is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should move away from the Azores overnight and then approach Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be an extratropical cyclone when it reaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center. The Meteorological Service of Portugal reported that a wind gust of 78 mph occurred in Flores Island when Helene passed to the north of that island.
Tropical Storm 10L (Joyce)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 14…Joyce is moving toward the east near 17 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. After that time, the cyclone should turn east-southeast away from the Azores.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
1.) The remnants of Issac, now a tropical wave, are located over the central Caribbean Sea. Slow re-development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for re-development. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percen
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)
Gulf of Mexico
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