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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
By: Glenn James
September 12, 2018
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 17E (Olivia) is located about 110 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 26W (Mangkhut) is located about 592 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 27W (Barijat) is located about 263 NM east of Hanoi, Vietnam
1.) A broad area of low pressure appears to have formed about 100 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, however the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not changed much in organization since earlier today. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, some development of this system is possible over the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly toward the west-southwest away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
1.) An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
According to the CPHC Advisory 50…Olivia is moving toward the west-southwest near 20 mph. This motion is expected to continue through tomorrow with a slight decrease in forward speed, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Olivia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday night or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall will persist through Thursday night. Moisture associated with Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in some areas, with isolated amounts of 15 inches, especially in higher terrain. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Nine inches of rain have already fallen over parts of Maui.
SURF: Large swells generated by Olivia will impact parts of the main Hawaiian Islands into tonight. This will result in dangerous surf along east facing shores
According to the JTWC, this super typhoon is now peaking as it moves through the Philippine Sea. It’s expected to clip northern Luzon Island, Philippines…before moving by just south of Hong Kong as a weakening typhoon
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