CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)…is located 360 miles south-southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)…is located 1515 miles south-southwest of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)…is located 670 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC…Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet…2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear…4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico River…6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet…5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30 inches near the storm’s track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Thursday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane 08L (Helene)
According to the NHC…Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on Wednesday. Thereafter, Helene should recurve northeastward with increasing forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Helene should weaken to a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
Tropical Storm 09L (Isaac)
According to the NHC…Isaac is moving toward the west near 17 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday night, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph with higher gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening forecast afterward on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
1.) Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow. Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
2.) A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)
Gulf of Mexico
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