CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)…is located 465 miles south-southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)…is located 1590 miles south-southwest of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)…is located 960 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC…Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane 08L (Helene)
According to the NHC…Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A continued west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 12 hours, but a gradual weakening trend is expected after that time.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles rom the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.
Tropical Storm 09L (Isaac)
According to the NHC…Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through the end of the week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.
The maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, but Isaac is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
1.) Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and are showing some signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
2.) A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores in a day or two. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low moves erratically over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Helene)
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaac)
Gulf of Mexico
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