Chapala Impacts Yemen, Cyclone Megh Forms in Arabian Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on the Arabian Sea, displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, and Estimated Rainfall (TAOS model) layers.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala made landfall on November 3, bringing strong winds, very heavy rains, and high waves to Yemen’s coastal areas (ECHO). Initial reports (as of November 3) estimate that the number of people affected by Chapala is at least 1.1 million, with most from the governorates of Shabwah and Hadramaut (ReliefWeb/UN OCHA). According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 76% of the population (1.4 million people) in Shabwah and Hadramaut were already in need of assistance prior to impact by Chapala due to ongoing conflict in the area (UN OCHA).

PDC situational awareness product depicting rainfall accumulation over the Arabian Peninsula for the last week.

At least 300 millimeters (approximately 12 inches) of rain—roughly five years’ worth for the region—fell over 48 hours, causing massive flooding in the Socotra, Hadramaut, and Shabwah governorates (ReliefWeb/ECHO). According to reports, as of November 5, an estimated 44,400 people remain displaced (ReliefWeb/UN OCHA).

Newly formed Tropical Cyclone Megh is also expected to impact parts of Yemen, tracking over the island of Socotra early next week, before making landfall by November 10 (NASA). As of November 5 (2100 UTC), Megh is located approximately 556 nautical miles east of Socotra Island and kicking up waves of 12 feet (JTWC Warning #3). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center advises that Megh is expected to steadily intensify over the next 48 hours.

RVA Country Profile: Yemen

As recovery operations continue in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Chapala, and with recently formed Tropical Cyclone Megh expected to track over Socotra Island and make landfall in southeastern Yemen next week, let’s take a look at how pre-existing conditions in the country increase susceptibility to the damaging effects of a hazard via PDC’s Global Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA).

This Week in Hazards

• Investigation into cases of locally-acquired dengue fever is underway in Hawaii. As of November 4, 15 cases have been confirmed by the Hawaii Department of Health (HDOH). So far, all of the identified cases in the recent outbreak have come from Hawaii Island, and officials consider the risk of dengue spreading to other islands “low” (HDOH Hawaii Island Outbreak FAQs). Dengue fever is not regularly found in Hawaii, and the World Health Organization estimates that up to 50-100 million infections may occur annually in those countries where dengue is endemic—putting nearly “half the world’s population at risk” (WHO). For a better visualization of dengue’s global distribution, visit DengueMap.

• On November 4, overflowing rivers caused an avalanche in the Department of Cauca, Colombia, affecting more than 5,300 people across 17 communities (PAHO).

• For the most part, the October-December seasonal rainfall has been favorable for parts of the Horn of Africa, and ground conditions are expected to improve in some areas. Yet, ongoing heavy rainfall over parts of Somalia and Ethiopia has led to the swelling of rivers, increasing flood risks in the Shabelle and Jubba River basins (CPC). Continued “enhanced rains” are expected in the upcoming week.

Current Hazard Warnings

Flood: Somalia, Ethiopia (Southern), United States (Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina), Australia (Queensland)

Winter Storm: Canada (Yukon), United States (Colorado, Utah)

Drought: Indonesia (Java), United States (Western), Puerto Rico (Eastern), Papua New Guinea

Landslide: Sri Lanka

Biomedical: West Africa

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