Hurricane Patricia Nears Mexico; Update on Typhoon Koppu
Since forming on October 20, Hurricane Patricia has strengthened into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane, with wind speeds maintained at 150 miles per hour (NHC Advisory #11A). As of October 22 (0000 UTC), Patricia is located an estimated 225 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is expected to make landfall in the “hurricane warning area” by Friday—currently, a hurricane warning is in effect for San Blas to Punta San Telmo.
Hurricane Patricia is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Michoacan, Guerrero, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and Oaxaca through Saturday, with an increased risk of landslides and flooding (CONAGUA Notice #20).
RVA Country Profile: The Philippines
More than 1.2 million people have been affected by Typhoon Koppu (known locally as Lando), which made landfall in the Philippines on October 18, and moved slowly across the island of Luzon before exiting into the South China Sea late October 19 (local time) (NDRRMC SitRep #14). According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (as of October 22), the total number of flooding incidents across affected areas has reached 799, and more than 21,000 homes have been damaged throughout regions of Luzon. Indicated by a rainfall analysis performed by NASA, most of Luzon received over 11.8 inches of rain as Koppu passed over the island, with some areas receiving about 30 inches (NASA).
This Week in Hazards
- Hurricane Olaf is continuing on a northwestward track, keeping it far southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and is located (as of 2100 UTC) 705 kilometers southeast of Hilo, Hawaii (CPHC Advisory #32). Olaf has maintained wind speeds near 110 miles per hour, though it is expected to begin weakening by late Thursday (local time). Swells produced by Olaf have triggered high surf warnings for the Island of Hawaii and high surf advisories for most of the state through Saturday, with very strong breaking waves and rip currents expected (NOAA Coastal Hazard Message).
- Recent heavy rainfall over the border areas between Sudan and South Sudan has increased the risk of river flooding over the next week (CPC). Above-normal rains have improved seasonal conditions in Sudan, and slightly improved long-term deficits in South Sudan, where poor vegetation conditions remain of concern following months of insufficient and erratic rainfall.
- Reports indicate that as of October 16, a measles outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has infected approximately 30,000 people, killing at least 428, since the start of the year (Reuters, CIDRAP). According to the World Health Organization, the current outbreak is due, in part, to low immunization rates (WHO).
Current Hazard Warnings
Tropical Cyclone: Champi (Western Pacific), Olaf (Central Pacific), Patricia (Eastern Pacific)
High Surf: United States (Hawaii)
Flood: United States (South Carolina), South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia
Storm: Guatemala, Brazil (Southern)
Winter Storm: Canada (Nunavut)
Drought: India, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Ethiopia, United States (Western, Southern)
Biomedical: West Africa
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