EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: A solid light to moderately strong trade wind weather pattern will continue over the state today, through the weekend into Monday. As we push into Tuesday onwards, high pressure will strengthen to our north, prompting an increase in our local trade wind flow. As the trade winds increase, there’s a good chance of finding small craft wind advisory flags going up over those windiest coasts and channels…particularly around Maui County and the Big Island.
Rainfall will continue to fall along our windward sides at times, although there’s no rainfall enhancing upper level low pressure systems in our area at the moment. This suggests that there will be nothing out of the ordinary in terms of precipitation. Meanwhile, the leeward sides will remain generally dry through the weekend, with perhaps a few showers being carried over that way…once the trade winds show their expected increase.
The surf is generally on the small side today, although the north shores have pretty good surf breaking, associated with a north-northwest swell. This should drop during the upcoming weekend. The surf will begin to rise Sunday night along our leeward beaches into Monday. This larger than normal south swell was generated last weekend down near New Zealand. It will have taken about a week to travel that 3500+ miles from the southern hemisphere. It is expected to be large enough to trigger a high surf advisory.
Click on the following link for the latest advisories and warnings: Wind/Surf/Flood related advisories or warnings
Broad Overview of Hawaii’s Weather
Our trade winds will be light to locally moderate into the weekend. Glancing at this weather map, it shows high pressure systems to the northeast through northwest of the islands. Our local winds will remain light to moderately strong into the weekend, locally a bit stronger around Maui County and the Big Island. The trade winds are expected to increase some around Monday or Tuesday of next week, likely becoming strong enough for localized small craft wind advisories then.
Trade winds continue…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts (mph), along with directions Friday afternoon:
15 Port Allen Kauai – NE
15 Kahuku, Oahu – NE
22 Molokai – NE
15 Kahoolawe – SE
14 Lipoa, Maui – NE
10 Lanai – NE
25 Upolu Point, Big Island – NE
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Friday afternoon. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we find scattered low clouds generally offshore of the islands, heading towards the Big Island and Maui and Kauai to a lesser degree. We can use this looping satellite image to see the low clouds moving along in the trade wind flow. There look to be more high level clouds coming our way from the southwest, although they were still over the ocean at the time of this writing. Checking out this looping radar image we see showers over the ocean, moving along in the northeast breezes, which will focus their efforts on the windward sides.
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of late Friday morning:
0.70 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.10 Kahuku training area, Oahu
0.42 Oheo Gulch, Maui
0.79 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
Here is the latest NWS rainfall forecast
Here are the latest available satellite images:
SURF OUTLOOK: The north shores will find slightly larger surf today into Saturday. Surf will be very small Friday and Saturday on our south shores. The west shores will find small surf both Friday and Saturday. The surf along the east facing shores will be small through Saturday….becoming larger at some beaches.
North shores – The current north-northwest swell will be gradually diminishing from the north through the weekend…although with lots of waves to ride. Possible bump around next Tuesday for a day or two.
West shores – The north-northwest swells will taper off as the swell becomes more northerly into the weekend. The new larger south swell right after the weekend will bring these beaches up again then.
South shores – Relatively small to very small swell waves will keep things going through the weekend. A new larger south swell will bring more substantial surf our way from the southern hemisphere starting Monday…becoming even larger Tuesday into Wednesday – almost certainly attaining high surf advisory levels.
East shores – The winds will be light to moderately strong, producing generally small to very small wind swell waves…although there will be a rise locally. This increase in waves from the east, generated by far off but very strong (it was a category 4 major hurricane) now tropical storm Hilary will arrive Friday, continuing through the weekend.