EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: The trade winds are on the rise in terms of strength, which will hold steady in the rather strong gusty realms through Thursday or so. This has sparked a small craft wind advisory over those windiest coastal and channel waters in Maui County and the Big Island. As the high pressure area now to our north, moves eastward through the week…our local trade winds will calm down some Friday into the weekend.
Meanwhile, our island skies will range between clear to mostly cloudy at times, although rainfall will be at a minimal for the time being. At the moment, we find lots of high cirrus clouds being carried our way aloft, from the southwest. As the trade winds peak in strength over the next few days, they will begin to carry somewhat more showery clouds our way, generally arriving along the windward coasts and slopes. The leeward sides may eventually see a few showers being carried over that way on the locally strong and gusty trade winds.
The weather related feature during this first half of the week, which will have the greatest impact…will be the rising south swell along our leeward beaches. There will be high surf advisory flags going up along those beaches beginning this afternoon…and likely lasting through Wednesday. Large to very large surf in respect to these south and west facing beaches, will necessitate caution for our local visitors and others too. This early autumn south swell will start to ease up Thursday onwards.
The NWS forecast office in Honolulu has also issued a Red Flag Warning for parts of the state, mainly the leeward sides. This is being caused by the combination of strong trade winds, low relative humidity, and the expectations for lack of rainfall along those dry sides of the islands this afternoon. This isn’t a forecast for fire, just noting the higher than normal risk for fires starting.
Click on the following link for the latest advisories and warnings: Wind/Surf/Flood related advisories or warnings
Broad Overview of Hawaii’s Weather
Our trade winds will be strengthening. Glancing at this weather map, it shows high pressure systems to the north and north-northeast of the islands. Our local winds will become stronger into Tuesday. Small craft wind advisories have begun over those windiest coasts and channels in Maui County and the Big Island. These stronger trade winds will last through Thursday, with a gradual weakening Friday into the weekend..at which point the small craft advisories for the wind will drop.
Trade winds continue…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts (mph), along with directions early Monday afternoon:
14 Lihue, Kauai – ENE
25 Waianae, Oahu – NE
27 Molokai – NE
35 Kahoolawe – ESE
33 Kahului, Maui – ENE
07 Lanai – NE
24 Upolu Point, Big Island – NE
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Monday afternoon. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we find just a few scattered low clouds generally offshore of the islands…although they are starting to congregate over and around the mountains locally. At the same time we see lots of high cirrus clouds to our south and southwest, spreading over the islands. We can use this looping satellite image to see just a few low clouds moving along in the trade wind flow. There are those high level clouds coming our way from the southwest too. Checking out this looping radar image we see a few showers over the ocean, moving along in the trade wind flow, mostly to the south of the Big Island and around the central islands.
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of late Monday morning:
0.19 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.10 Kahuku training area, Oahu
0.08 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.37 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
Here is the latest NWS rainfall forecast
Here are the latest available satellite images:
SURF OUTLOOK: The north shores will find very small to near flat surf Monday, then rising some Tuesday. Surf will be rising during the day Monday, then larger Tuesday on the south shores. The west shores will find rising surf later Monday into Tuesday…although smaller in generally than on the south shores. The wind swell along the east facing shores will be gradually rising through Tuesday.
North shores – Very small to flat surf Monday, with a new bump Tuesday…lasting several days.
West shores – The new larger south swell arriving through the day Monday will bring these beaches up again, with even larger waves Tuesday into midweek…then dropping through most of the rest of this new week.
South shores – A new larger south swell will bring more substantial surf our way from the southern hemisphere during the day Monday…becoming even larger Tuesday into Wednesday – almost certainly attaining high surf advisory levels…then dropping.
East shores – As the trade winds increase now, the wind swell waves will be on the rise in turn.