Hawaii Weather Synopsis: Light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected into the weekend. Expect windward areas to see showers mainly overnight and during the morning hours. Afternoon land and sea breezes are expected, which will bring clouds and showers to the interior and leeward sections.
No Advisories, Watches, or Warnings are currently in effect.
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Broad Overview of Hawaii’s Weather
Based on the NWS Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii, issued 25 Oct 2011 at 10:00am HST
A ridge axis just north of Kauai this morning is bringing east to southeast winds to the islands. Meanwhile, a surface low is co-located with an upper level low about 800 miles northwest of Kauai (see latest weather map). This system is bringing high clouds over the islands from time to time. The clouds will at times be thick enough over Kauai and Oahu to limit the sun.
The models are in good agreement for the next 36 hours or so with the ridge remaining a primary weather feature. Winds will be light to moderate, keeping showers over the windward and mauka areas during the overnight hours and into the morning. However, winds are expected to be light enough for some local land and sea breezes to set up. Yesterday, afternoon showers developed over leeward and some interior sections as a result. Similar conditions can be expected today and tomorrow.
Beyond 36 hours, the models start to disagree, primarily with the handling of the low to the northwest. The models all keep the trough to the northwest in the same general area, but disagree on the strength. There is general agreement with the ridge remaining nearly stationary, which will keep the light to moderate east to southeast winds into the weekend.
As we head into next week, there is a lot more disagreement between the models, particularly with the upper levels. The GFS model wants to develop a mid-level low over the islands while the ECMWF and NOGAPS keep the low west of the islands. With such disagreement in the long range, the forecast reflects a climatological trade wind pattern, but NWS will need to watch the model runs to see what pattern develops.
In the marine environment, winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria into the weekend, with the exception being waters south of the Big Island, where trade winds will near the 25 kt criteria. No significant swells are expected through the weekend, with an advisory level northwest swell possible around Monday. The recently updated surf discussion contains insight into the swell potential over the next several days.
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph), along with directions late Tuesday morning:
10 Lihue, Kauai – E
24 Kahuku, Oahu – E
05 Molokai – S
29 Kahoolawe – E
29 Kahului, Maui – ENE
09 Lanai – S
29 Upolu Airport, Big Island – ENE
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of late Tuesday morning:
1.16 Puu Opae, Kauai
0.19 Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.14 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.80 Hilo Airport, Big Island
Here is the latest NWS rainfall forecast
Here are the latest available satellite images:
SURF ZONE FORECAST – OAHU
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST TUE OCT 25 2011
Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet today lowering to 1 to 3 feet Wednesday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today lowering to 1 to 3 feet Wednesday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today through Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday.
Outlook through Monday Oct 31: A small north swell will arrive early Friday. The current small, but long-period south swell, will become slowly lower through mid-week. A larger northwest swell next Monday will create surf near the 15 foot advisory level on north facing shores.