Hawaii Weather Synopsis: A trough to the west of the main Hawaiian Islands has weakened the surface pressure gradient. Winds are gentle east to southeasterly but may trend back to gentle trade winds around the middle of the week. Weather will be influenced by the afternoon sea breezes which promote afternoon clouds and showers.
No Advisories, Watches, or Warnings are currently in effect.
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Broad Overview of Hawaii’s Weather
Based on the NWS Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii, issued 24 Oct 2011 at 10:00am HST
There were few clouds over the Hawaiian Islands this morning except for limited showers on windward sides of the central islands and the southeast section of the Big Island. Cloud motion indicates southeasterly flow near Kauai but east- southeasterly for the other islands. Expected weather will be a combination of some windward clouds and showers along with the diurnal variation of afternoon interior cloud formation and nighttime clearing. There is no significant influx of moisture and the atmosphere is stable except just west of Kauai. Consequently shower activity is expected to be mostly light to moderate but with the small possibility of localized heavier showers over Kauai.
The larger weather pattern is dominated by the strong high far northeast and a weak low about 850 miles northwest of Kauai (see latest weather map). This leaves a weak ridge to the north producing a gentle east to southeast flow in the lower atmosphere. The temperature inversion is retained under the effect of the surface ridge as indicated on the morning balloon sounding over the Big Island but moisture is higher and the inversion weak over Kauai.
An upper low to the northwest will weaken and shift northeastward over the next 3 days but with a stretched out very weak upper trough remaining. High level clouds will continue in varying amounts over the main Hawaiian islands in the broad southwesterly upper flow.
Wednesday and Thursday will see the return of gentle easterly trades according to computer models. The surface winds may trend back to southeasterly by the end of the week due to the upper trough lingering to the northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. Or the trough may descend over the islands as a cut off upper low. Models are not in good agreement, hence it is too soon to be confident for the forecast period beyond Thursday.
In the marine environment, winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through mid week and probably into the weekend. No significant swells are on the horizon for the next few days.
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph), along with directions late Monday morning:
09 Princeville, Kauai – ESE
22 Bellows AFB, Oahu – E
08 Molokai – E
23 Kahoolawe – E
23 Kahului, Maui – ENE
07 Lanai – WSW
29 South Point, Big Island – ENE
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of late Monday morning:
0.43 Waiakoali, and Mohihi Crossing, Kauai
4.71 Kahana, Oahu
0.43 Saddle Quarry, Big Island
Here is the latest NWS rainfall forecast
Here are the latest available satellite images:
SURF ZONE FORECAST – OAHU
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST MON OCT 24 2011
Surf along north facing shores will be 6 to 10 feet today, lowering ot heights of 4 to 6 feet on Tuesday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet today, lowering to heights of 2 to 3 feet on Tuesday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Tuesday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday.
Outlook through Sunday Oct 30: The northwest swell will continue to decrease into Wednesday. A new but smaller northwest swell will likely fill in later in the week. There will also be a series of small south swells through the period.