Hawaiian Weather Synopsis: The details of the upcoming weather remain in place, with only minor adjustments from the last several days. The trade winds will remain in place, generally blowing in the light to moderately strong range through the rest of this work week. The winds are forecast to surge a bit later Friday into Saturday, helping to push a weak cold front through the island chain. These winds may feel slightly cooler than normal Friday evening into Saturday. As we push into the second half of the upcoming weekend into Monday, our winds will ease up…and warm up too as they swing around to a more easterly direction.
The cold front’s showers will fall along our windward coast and slopes for the most part, and over the lower mountains on the smaller islands. The gusty winds coming in with the cold front should carry some showers over into the leeward sides in places too. The atmosphere will dry out quite a bit in the wake of the front’s passage, remaining that way through most of the first half of next week. The computer forecast models continue to suggest that we could find a second cold front approaching the state at some between next Wednesday and Friday.
Click on the following link for the latest National Weather Service advisories and warnings: Wind/Surf/Flood related advisories or warnings
Broad Overview of Hawaii’s Weather
Our trade winds will blow in the light to moderately strong range today…then increase again later Friday into Saturday. Glancing at this weather map, it shows a 1036 millibar high pressure system far to our north, with a weaker 1020 millibar high pressure cell to our northeast. There’s a cold front coming out of a weak low pressure system offshore of the California north coast…which runs southwest and west to another weak low pressure system near the International Dateline. The trade winds will surge temporarily later in the day Friday into Saturday, pushing the cold front down into the state then. A slightly cooler air mass will rush in over the state along with and in the wake of this frontal passage…through Saturday night. As a second cold front approaches from the north and northeast during the second half of the new work week ahead…our winds may slow down ahead it, then increase again after its passage.
Trade winds continue…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts (mph), along with directions Thursday afternoon:
23 Port Allen, Kauai – ESE
21 Honolulu, Oahu – E
24 Molokai – NE
27 Kahoolawe – ESE
21 Kahului, Maui – NE
12 Lanai – NE
28 Upolu Point, Big Island – NE
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Thursday afternoon. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we find low clouds generally offshore of the islands…although they are being carried over the windward sides of the islands in a few places. We can use this looping satellite image to see those low clouds moving along in the trade wind flow. There’s a large area of high level clouds located offshore, to the west of the islands….which have moved over the state again now. Checking out this looping radar image we see showers over the ocean, which are impacting the windward sides locally.
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of late Thursday morning:
0.32 Mount Wailaleale, Kauai
0.30 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.14 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.77 Kealakekua, Big Island
Here is the latest NWS rainfall forecast
Here are the latest available satellite images:
SURF OUTLOOK: The north shores will find a lowering northwest swell Thursday, then build again by early Friday. Surf along the south shores will flat to very small through Friday. The west shores will find smaller surf Thursday…then rising again on Friday. The wind swell along the east facing shores will remain small to very small through Friday.
North shores – The northwest swell will drop a bit more during the day Thursday. A new northwest swell will arrive early Friday, bringing the surf back up into the weekend. These beaches will receive another boost, this time from the northeast right after the upcoming weekend.
West shores – The northwest swells will be dropping some Thursday. A new northwest swell will arrive early Friday, with waves continuing into the weekend.
South shores – The recent late season south swell activity will be much less active now, becoming very small or less through Friday. There’s an outside chance of a modest bump again this weekend.
East shores – As the trade winds become somewhat lighter for the next few days, the wind swell waves will drop a little in turn. A northeast swell later this weekend or by Monday will bring the surf up along these beaches.