Western Pacific Ocean – Tropical Cyclone 02W (Malakas)
Sunday, April 10, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Malakas) is located approximately 203 NM north-northwest of Yap

According to the JTWC Warning number 17, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to near 75 knots.

Satellite imagery depicts a medium-sized system with flaring central convection that continues to obscure the low level circulation.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with moderate vertical wind shear, moderate
poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures over the Philippine Sea. The cyclone is tracking along the southwestern periphery of the ridge to the northeast.

TS Malakas will continue to track northwestward under the steering influence of the ridge. After 24 hours, the system will jog slightly westward due to a weak binary
interaction with a secondary cyclone (TS 03W) to the west. After 36 hours, it will track more poleward as it begins to round the ridge axis then recurve northeastward.

The favorable environment will prevail and fuel a steady intensification to 95 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, as the cyclone accelerates on the poleward side of the ridge axis, decreased vertical wind shear and increased poleward outflow, due to the initial exposure into the prevailing westerlies, will enhance the favorable dynamics and bring the cyclone to its peak intensity of 100 knots by 72 hours.

After 72 hours, vertical wind shear will once again increase. This plus the influx of cool dry air and cooling sea surface temperatures will rapidly erode the system and by 120 hours will be at 60 knots. Concurrently by 120 hrs, TS 02W will begin extra-tropical transition.