By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W…which is located approximately 36 NM east of the Visayan Islands, Philippines.
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a broad area with disorganized convection offset to the northwest near the Philippines.
Environmental analysis depicts a marginally favorable environment characterized by pronounced poleward outflow, low (05 to 10 knot) vertical wind shear, and high sea surface temperatures.
Global model guidance shows greater concurrence between GFS and ECMWF regarding the intensification and position of 94W. Recent model runs predict that the invest will reach TC strength within 48 hours, while NAVGEM and CMC still doubt intensification and place the invest 5 degrees east.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.