By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98W…which is located approximately 348 NM east of Palau.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection over a broad low level circulation.
Environmental analysis depicts generally favorable conditions for development with robust equatorward outflow, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate that 98W will track west-northwestward, and are split on development, with the GFS continuing to be the most aggressive.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains Low.