Invest 94S
Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94S which is located approximately 470 NM northwest of Christmas Island.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery illustrates a consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with improved convective banding. A scatterometry image shows a defined circulation with 15-25 knot wind barbs displaced to the north of the llcc.

Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development defined by warm sea surface temperatures, strong upper-level divergence and low-moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear.

Multiple global models are in general agreement that 94S will steadily develop as it tracks southeastward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.