Invest 94S / Invest 94B
Friday, November 18, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94S which is located approximately 80 NM east of Christmas Island.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low level circulation (llc) with
deep convection displaced to the south of the llc. Another image shows a broad circulation with weak winds (5-10 knots) in the northern semicircle and slightly higher winds (20-25 knots) to the south of the llc.

94S has missed its chance to develop and is now stuck beneath persistent, high (30-40 knot) northeasterly vertical wind shear.

94S is now stuck beneath persistent, high (25-30 knots) northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although, it still has warm sea surface temperatures in its favor, but that may not be enough to support further development.

Global models generally agree the system will continue tracking east southeast of java over the next few days and eventually dissipate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

North Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94B which is located approximately 444 NM east-southeast of Chennai, India.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a large system with multiple mesovortices rotating cyclonically about a broad low-level circulation center (llcc) with disorganized deep convection flaring over the northern and western peripheries. A color composite microwave image reveals shallow banding wrapping into a broad llcc with disorganized convection scattered over the western semicircle.

With the exception of dry air entrainment, environmental conditions are generally favorable with broad diffluence aloft, low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature values.

Global models are in general agreement on a slow west-northwestward track over the next two days with NAVGEM the most aggressive model in developing a tropical storm strength system near landfall…the other models indicate much weaker development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.