Invest 94S / Invest 94B
Saturday, November 19, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94S which is located approximately 714 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery depicts a fully exposed low-level circulation (llc) with
isolated deep convection sheared just to the south of the llc.

Currently 94S is situated under strong northeasterlies resulting in high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear and an unfavorable environment for development. Sea surface temperatures remain warm.

Global models are in strong agreement that 94S will have little development as it tracks eastward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

North Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94B which is located approximately 380 NM east-southeast of Chennai, India.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts flaring deep convection sheared over the western periphery of a broad low-level circulation center (llcc). A microwave image reveals fragmented banding wrapping into a broad, weakly defined llcc.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with high (25-30 knots) easterly vertical wind shear offset by broad diffluence aloft and warm sea surface temperature values.

Global models are in general agreement on a slow, meandering westward to west-northwestward track over the next two days with slow development due to sustained marginal conditions and dry air entrainment.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remainslow.