Invest 97W / Invest 94S / Invest 94B
Sunday, November 20, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 190 NM southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed broad low-level circulation (llc) with deep convection displaced to the north of the llc…along with formative convective banding wrapping into the llc along the northern and western peripheries.

Invest 97W is situated under moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear due to strong easterlies. Robust poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for development resulting in a marginally favorable environment.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 97W will have slight development as it remains quasi-stationary over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94S which is located approximately 710 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low-level circulation (llc) with isolated deep convection sheared just to the south of the llc.

Currently 94S is situated under strong northeasterlies resulting in high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear and an unfavorable environment for development. Sea surface temperatures remain warm.

Global models are in strong agreement that 94S will have little development as it tracks eastward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

North Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94B which is located approximately 277 NM east-southeast of Chennai, India.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts flaring deep convection sheared over the western periphery of a broad low-level circulation center (llcc). A microwave image reveals fragmented banding wrapping into a broad, weakly defined llcc.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with high (25-30 knots) easterly vertical wind shear offset by broad diffluence aloft and warm sea surface temperature values.

Global models are in general agreement on a slow, meandering westward to west-northwestward track over the next two days with slow development due to sustained marginal conditions and dry air entrainment.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.