By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, June 12, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)…is located approximately 251 NM northwest of Chichi Jima, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)…is located approximately 282 NM south of Karachi, Pakistan
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form late this week, several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
North Central Pacific Ocean:
There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol) – Final Warning
According to the JTWC Warning number 26, sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery reveals that 03W is being decapitated by the jet stream it is interacting with. The convection is rapidly being swept off to the north leaving the low level circulation center mostly exposed.
The system is forecast to continue its rapid progress northeastward through the forecast period. Currently in an unfavorable environment, characterized by increasing vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment and falling sea surface temperatures, which will all serve to weaken the system steadily through time.
The strong baroclinic forcing of the passing jet will progress 03W through sub-tropical transition by 12 hours, and initiate extra-tropical transition through the forecast period.
Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)
According to the JTWC Warning number 28, sustained winds are 90 knots…with gusts to near 110 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a central dense overcast cloud feature that is struggling to maintain cover of the low level circulation center. While the inner core of the system is well covered, a large wedge of dry air is wrapping its way around the southern periphery of the system.
02A has progressed several times through a sinusoidal trend of convective consolidation and corresponding spike in intensity only to fizzle six hours later, resulting in a dip in intensity values. We find ourselves in a lull after a short-lived re-consolidation several hours ago.
TC 02A is still progressing through a convective waxing and waning phase, though significant intensification is likely out of reach. As the system progresses poleward, the environment will gradually become more hostile.
Favorable upper-level outflow will be replaced with subsidence aloft, vertical wind shear values remain moderate and dry air entrainment will inundate the circulation. these factors will gradually weaken the circulation through 48 hours.
After 48 hours, the ridge over southern India shifts equatorward, allowing the system to pass north of it. By 72 hours, 02A will begin to interact with the Pakistan-India boarder and after making landfall shortly thereafter, the system will rapidly weaken as it track northeastward, eventually dissipating by 120 hours.