Tropical Cyclone 15E (Newton) / Tropical Cyclone 17W / Tropical Cyclone 18W
Thursday, September 22, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Newton)…is located about 345 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Talas)…is located approximately 250 NM southeast of Iwakuni, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 18W…is located approximately 607 NM north-northwest of Yap

 

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Newton)

NEWTON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS SOCORRO ISLAND

Newton is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Newton is forecast to gradually weaken through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

South of Southern Mexico:

South of Southern Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a trough of low pressure.

Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Talas)

According to the JTWC Warning number 6, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts deep persistent convection to the north of an exposed low-level circulation center.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with robust poleward outflow, warm sea surface temperature values, being offset by moderate vertical wind shear.

Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable as characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow induced by an upper-level jet, which remains across the Sea of Japan.

TD 17W will track along the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. TD 17W will begin rounding the ridge axis between 12 and 24 hours nd increase in track speed and only increase intensity to a peak of 35 knots as an approaching upper-level trough moves in from the west, while vertical wind shear increases over mainland Honshu.

TD 17W is expected to make landfall near the city of Tahara, Aichi Prefecture, Japan between 24 and 36 hours. TD 17W will continue on anortheast track encountering the rugged terrain of the Japanese Alps, whereby beginning the dissipation process, completely dissipating by 72 hours over water.

Tropical Cyclone 18W

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts compact persistent deep convection wrapping into a low-level circulation center.

The environmental conditions remain favorable for enhanced development with slight poleward and westward outflow, low to moderate vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature values.

TS 18W continues to remain in a quasi-stationary status due to a weak synoptic steering pattern with a col directly to the north, which is continuing to impede its motion. The deep-layer subtropical ridge to the northeast will begin to build and become the dominant steering feature within the next 6-12 hours.

Once the ridge takes over steering it will allow for TS 18W to proceed on a westward track towards the Luzon coast of the Philippines. During the transit TS 18W will steadily increase intensity to a peak of 60 knots as it passes over the very warm Philippine Sea until it makes its initial landfall on the northern coast of Luzon.

However, the system will only slightly decrease in intensity after interacting with the rugged terrain, and then reemerge over the South China Sea just after 48 hours. TS 18W will steadily intensify in the South China Sea to typhoon strength near Hainan, China, between 96 and 120 hours due to enhanced outflow and low vertical wind shear.