Tropical Cyclone 18W (Noru) / Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kulap) / Tropical Cyclone 02S
Monday, September 26, 2022

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Noru)…is located approximately 418 NM west-northwest of Manila, Philippines

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kulap) …is located approximately 123 NM north-northeast of Iwo To, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 02S…is located approximately 697 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

A broad area of low pressure is located south of the southern coast of Mexico.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression could form by the end of this week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Noru)

According to the JTWC Warning number 20, sustained winds were 90 knots with gusts to near 110 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the system maintained deep convective signature and a small eye that has become partly cloud-filled. Curved bands feeding in from the west and south have become more compact.

TY Noru will continue to track generally westward in the south china sea where the warm waters, combined with strong radial outflow and low vertical wind shear, will help fuel a secondary intensification to a peak of 110 knots by 24 hours as it approaches central Vietnam.

After 24 hours, increasing vertical wind shear will begin to weaken the system down to 95 knots by 36 hours. TY 18W will make a final landfall south of Hue just after 36 hours. The rugged terrain of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand will rapidly weaken the system to dissipation by 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kulap)

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating system with the central dense overcast (cdo) and the feeder bands packed along the eastern periphery of a broad and ragged low level circulation that is offset to the southwest quadrant of the cdo.

TS Kulap will turn more northward then begin to accelerate northeastward after 12 hours as it rounds the ridge axis. The favorable conditions will fuel steady intensification to a peak of 65 knots by 48 hours after it gets exposed to stronger poleward outflow associated with the prevailing westerlies.

Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will begin to erode the system. Also, by 36 hours, the cyclone will enter the baroclinic zone and begin extra-tropical transition, and by 72 hours will transform into a 60 knot cold core low with an expansive wind field.

After 24 hours, TC 02S will make a slight turn and head on a more west-southwestward track as it will attempt to round the ridge axis. However, the system will begin to dissipate at this time due to the worsening environment characterized by unfavorable vertical wind shear and the introduction of dry air wrapping into the low level circulation from the west.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 487 NM west of Guam

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery show disorganized deep
convection around a broad circulation in the southwest quadrant of the
area.

Environmental analysis reveals the invest is in a marginally favorable environment for development defined by high sea surface temperatures, moderate poleward and equatorward outflow, and medium (15-25 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 97W will track northwest over the next 48-72 hours and consolidate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Tropical Cyclone 02S

According to the JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system with the associated convection being displaced to the southwest of an assessed low level circulation center. This displacement is caused by strong (30-35 knots) upper level wind flow from the northeast.

Tropical Cyclone 02S is in a marginally favorable environment for further development characterized by strong (30-35 knots) poleward outflow aloft and warm seas surface temperatures, offset by strong (35-40 knot) vertical wind shear.

Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will begin to erode the system. Also, by 36 hours, the cyclone will enter the baroclinic zone and begin extra-tropical transition, and by 72 hours will transform into a 60 knot cold core low with an expansive wind field.

TC 02S will transit westward over the next 24 hours as it rides along the northwest sector of the ridge. The system will slowly begin to weaken in intensity from 40 knots to 35 knots by 24 hours as the environment will become less favorable due to increased vertical wind shear.