Tropical Cyclone 16E / Tropical Cyclone 18W (Noru) / Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kulap) / Tropical Cyclone 20W (Roke)
Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 16E…is located about 320 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexio-

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Noru)…is located approximately 29 NM west of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kulap)…is located approximately 603 NM east-southeast of Misawa, Japan – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Roke) …is located approximately 234 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 16E

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days.

The system is forecast to slow down and turn toward the north or north-northeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tomorrow and could reach hurricane strength by the end of the week.

>>> Western East Pacific:

The remnants of Newton are located about 1,200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low has weakened today.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has also decreased and become less organized during the past several hours.

Some slight development is still possible tonight or tomorrow while the system moves slowly westward over the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Noru) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 25, sustained winds were 80 knots with gusts to near 100 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Kulap) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 13, sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to near 80 knots.

Now Typhoon Kulap has quickly consolidated and intensified, and now can be safely said to have reached minimal typhoon strength.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep convective bands forming up on the west side and sliding upshear to the south of the system. Enhanced infrared imagery suggests development of a ragged eye feature as well. A microwave image showed well defined spiral bands of deep convection wrapping into a 35 NM ragged microwave eye feature.

The environment is generally favorable with robust poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Typhoon Kulap will continue to race northeastward through the short forecast (24 hours) along the tightening gradient between the steering ridge to the east and a deep trough approaching from the west.

The system has already started to feel some of the effects of the approaching major shortwave trough, the axis of which is currently moving into the Sea of Japan, though the system remains a warm-core tropical cyclone.

Extratropical transition is expected to begin in earnest within the next 12 hours, as the trough to west becomes negatively tilted, and Typhoon Kulap moves into phase with the trough.

However, the system is expected to retain its warm-core properties, transitioning very quickly as an instant warm core seclusion, all the while continuing to intensify.

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Roke)

According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to near 65 knots.

Tropical Depression 20W has quickly consolidated over the previous 12 hours while steadily intensifying. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep flaring convection firing predominantly in the northern sectors of the
circulation, though it remains disorganized is not evidenced to be wrapping into the low level circulation center as of yet.

The system lies in a favorable environment with low (0-5 knot) vertical wind shear, moderate radial outflow with a point source over top of the system and warm sea surface temperatures. The only inhibiting factor at present is the disorganized core structure of the system.

Once the system can consolidate a solid core, a period of intensification is expected as the favorable conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, low shear and moderate radial outflow are forecast to continue through the next 36 hours and the system should reach peak intensity of 45 knots by 36 hours.

By 48 hours, a minor shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Japanese Islands and lead to cyclogenesis of a weak low pressure area east of Tokyo, along the tail end of a cold frontal system left in the wake of what is now TY 19W.

The upper trough and baroclinic low will be fairly weak and quickly slide to the east-northeast on a relatively flat trajectory, leaving the frontal system stalled to north of TD 20W. The onset of increasing shear around 48 hours will mark the beginning of an initially slow weakening trend.

By 72 hours however the upper-level anticyclone currently providing good radial outflow will slide to the southwest of the system, and begin to impart strongly convergent flow aloft over the top of the system, leading to a more pronounced weakening phase.

However, the system is expected to retain its warm-core properties, transitioning very quickly as an instant warm core seclusion, all the while continuing to intensify.

As a now significantly weaker and shallower system, TD 20W will butt heads with moderately strong northerly flow behind the cold front will effectively block further poleward movement.