Tropical Cyclone 16E (Orlene) / Remnants of 20W
Sunday, October 2, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Orlene)…is located about 10 miles southwest of Las Islas Marias, Mexico

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Orlene)

NHC Advisory number 18

ORLENE NEARLY OVER ISLAS MARIAS…SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY ONGOING

Orlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general northward to north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next day or so.

On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will is forecast to move over Las Islas Marias tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, but Orlene is forecast to be remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene moves onshore, and the system should dissipated on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today.

RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> South-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two as the system moves slowly northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

South of southern Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during the next several days.

The low is forecast to move generally west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn northwestward after midweek.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as the (Remnants of 20W) which is located approximately 648 NM east of Misawa, Japan.

The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict an asymmetric convective structure with partially exposed low level circulation center that is transiting east-northeastward along the northwest periphery of a deep subtropical ridge to the southeast.

Environmental conditions reveal unfavorable conditions for transitioning into a tropical cyclone with severe (40-50 knots) vertical wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and the presence of a sharp upper-level trough displaced just to the west of the low level circulation center.

Global models agree that the remnants of 20W will slowly move east-northeastward and become quasi-stationary after 24 hours as the system slowly dissipates over open water.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 52 to 58 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.