Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 16E (Orlene) / Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine) / Remnants of 20W
Monday, October 3, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 16E (Orlene)…is located about 105 miles east-northeast of Mazatlan, Mexico – Last Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine)…is located about 500 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 16E (Orlene) – Last Advisory

NHC Advisory number 22

ORLENE DISSIPATES, BUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT

The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants are expected to totally dissipate overnight.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce an additional inch or two of
rain across portions of western Mexico into Tuesday, bringing storm total amounts to 10 inches locally. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine)

NHC Advisory number 2

PAINE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY

Paine is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a gradual turn westward on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight, but weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday with Paine degenerating into a remnant low by the middle portion of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

South of southern Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing a limited area of showers and thunderstorms.

Any development of this system over the next couple of days is forecast to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds and nearby dry air, but environmental conditions could become more favorable by the end of
this week.

The low is forecast to move generally west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn northwestward toward the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as the (Remnants of 20W) which is located approximately 817 NM east-southeast of Misawa, Japan.

The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a t-bone frontal system structure with a fully exposed low level circulation center stalled along the southern periphery of a transient high pressure system.

The scatterometer data indicated an asymmetric wind field with gale-force winds extending from the southwest to northeast of the system and lighter winds elsewhere.

Environmental conditions are unfavorable for transitioning into a tropical cyclone with strong (40-50 knots) vertical wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and the presence of a ridge slicing through the eastern portion of the system, which will ultimately cause the system to fill and gradually dissipate until being absorbed and carried off by a developing low pressure system in the Sea of Okhotsk.

Global models agree that the remnants of 20W will continue its quasi-stationary track after 24 hours as the system troughs out and get picked up by a follow on low pressure system.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 42 to 48 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

South Indian Ocean

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as (Invest 92S), which is located approximately 534 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a broad circulation with widespread disorganized convection.

Environmental analysis shows moderately favorable conditions for development, with fair poleward and westward outflow, moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate that 92S, a Sumatra low, is expected to meander westward while consolidating and deepening over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.