Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine) / Remnants of 20W
Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine)…is located about 425 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine)

NHC Advisory number 6

PAINE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

Paine is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue through early Wednesday.

A turn toward the west is expected by late Wednesday, with this motion continuing through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Paine should begin weakening later tonight or on Wednesday, and it is forecast to become a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) withhigher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Weakening should begin on Wednesday, and Paine is forecast to become a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

South of southern Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is currently producing only a few showers and thunderstorms.

Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur, due to strong upper-level winds and nearby dry air.

The low is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward remaining south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as the (Remnants of 20W) which is located approximately 930 NM east-southeast of Misawa, Japan.

The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery reveal broad, shallow convective banding wrapping into a fully exposed low level circulation (llc).

Sea surface temperatures around the system are cool.

Global models are in general agreement that the system will maintain its asymmetric wind field as it remains quasi-stationary before dissipating in an approaching frontal boundary within the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 40 to 45 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

South Indian Ocean

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as (Invest 92S), which is located approximately 908 NM east of Diego Garcia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery indicates low-level cloud lines wrapping into a partially-exposed, defined low-level circulation center (llcc) with flaring deep convection over the southern semi-circle. A color composite microwave image reveals a broad, defined llcc with fragmented deep convective banding over the southern semi-circle.

Upper-level analysis indicates a marginally-favorable environment with strong vertical wind shear (25 to 30 knots) offset by robust poleward outflow.

Global models indicate a westward to west-southwestward track over the next 2-days with gradual intensification.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.