Tropical Cyclone 03S (Balita) / Invest 98W
Sunday, October 9, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Balita)…is located approximately 998 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia – Final Warning


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Balita) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 8, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a rapidly weakening system with extensive cold air stratocumulus advecting over the western semicircle of a broadening, ragged low-level circulation (llc).

A microwave image reveals shallow banding wrapping around the weakly-defined llc with poorly-organized, rapidly-decaying deep convection sheared over 250nm to the southeast. Additionally, the system is entraining dry air and positioned over marginal sea surface temperatures.

TC 03S has slowed and is expected to turn westward along the northern periphery of a strong low-level high entrenched to the south with dissipation anticipated by 12 hours. Due to the strong gradient between the system and the high, a belt of 30-35 knot easterlies will persist over the next 36 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 98W which is located approximately 645 NM east of Manila, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a broad low level circulation with a poorly defined center, with persistent intense convection forming along the northern flank due to strong easterly convergence.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for intensification as depicted by strong poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Numerical models indicate a westward track with slow development in the Philippine Sea and greater intensification in the South China Sea.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.