Invest 97W / Invest 98W
Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There are no Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Near the coast of Southern Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with a surface trough and Julia’s remnants.

Development, if any, of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to dry air aloft and marginal upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico,
through the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 98W which is located approximately 268 NM east of Manila, Philippines

Enhanced multi-spectral satellite imagery and scatterometry data depict a well-rounded low level circulation tucked beneath the southeast side of intense but disorganized convection which has persisted for the past four hours.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for intensification as depicted by strong poleward outflow, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Analysis reveals a small upper-level anticyclone directly over top of the low level circulation, providing good radial outflow and low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), with warm sea surface temperatures.

Model guidance shows the system drifting slowly towards the west but remaining east of Luzon, blocked both by the terrain of Luzon itself and the strong NE surge flow acting as a barrier. The models jump circulations after about 36 hours, into the South China Sea into a separate and distinct area of vorticity.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 193 NM northwest of Guam

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated broad circulation with ample convective bands wrapping into an ill-defined but steadily consolidating low level circulation center obscured by convective blow off.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions with low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good radial outflow provided by an anticyclone over 97W and a tutt cell to the north which is increasing the poleward outflow./span>

Global models agree on a slow north- northwestward track with intensity guidance showing a gradual development over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90W which is located approximately 150 NM west-southwest of Manila, Philippines

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.