Tropical Cyclone 21W / Tropical Cyclone 22W / Invest 97W
Thursday, October 13, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 21W…is located approximately 544 NM east of Saipan

Tropical Cyclone 22W…is located approximately 288 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 21W

According to the JTWC Warning number 7, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows the system is now embedded in the convergent outer boundary of a deep tutt cell anchored to the northwest. The associated convection is sheared
northeastward, partially exposing the low level circulation center (llcc). The tutt cell is also causing subsidence along the western flank of the system, suppressing convective activity.

TD 21W will continue to track poleward around the tutt cell under the steering influence of the ridge to the east. The unfavorable environment, mostly caused by strong vertical wind shear and subsidence from the tutt cell, will gradually erode the system, leading to dissipation by 24 hours, as it gets fully embedded in the tutt cell boundary.

Tropical Cyclone 22W

According to the JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 437 NM south-southeast of Okinawa

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts fragmented convection mostly located in the northern quadrant of an exposed low level circulation (llc). Another pass reveals a steadily consolidating system with shallow banding wrapping into a more defined (llc).

Although sea surface temperature values are conducive, the system remains in a marginal environment for development due to weak outflow aloft and strong (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear. The system sits beneath an upper level low positioned to the south that is the predominant feature hindering the system’s development.

Global models are in good agreement that invest 97W will steadily intensify as it tracks toward Luzon.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains  medium.