Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay) / Tropical Cyclone 14W (Muifa)
Thursday, September 8, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay)…is located 320 miles south-southeast of San Diego, California

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Muifa)…is located approximately 578 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific: .

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay)

HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

According to the NHC advisory number 19…

Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Friday and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by late Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass near or west of the northwest coast of the Baja peninsula Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.

Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning during the next several hours, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday…

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Muifa)

According to the JTWC Warning number 11, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to near 70 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts that 14w has persistent deep convective hot towers that are firing off around the core of the circulation and fully obscuring the low level circulation center.

TS 14W is currently tracking generally westward in a favorable environment characterized by low vertical wind shear (0-5 knots), warm sea surface temperatures, and growing outflow aloft.

Over the next 12 hours, 14W is forecast to turn generally northwestward as the ridge to the east reorients vertically, at the same time the system will continue to develop, consolidate and intensify. By 24 hours the system is forecast to reach typhoon strength and continue deepening through 48 hours.

Between 48 and 72 hours, the system will reach its peak intensity near 110 knots and possibly higher, meanwhile, a very deep upper-level trough moving in from the west will reorient the steering ridge providing a deflection westward, moving 14W into the previous track of 12W.

This is significant because ocean heat values will plummet and begin to overshadow the favorable environment leading to a fairly quick drop in intensity. After 72 hours, still well above typhoon strength 14W will continue tracking around the southwestern periphery of the steering ridge and enter the East China Sea moving generally poleward.