By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Post-Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay)…is located 145 miles southwest of San Diego, California
Tropical Cyclone 14W (Muifa)…is located approximately 366 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Northeast Pacific: .
Post-Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay)
KAY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
According to the NHC advisory number 22…Kay is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore tonight and Saturday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low sometime tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center.
There are continued report of 50-70 mph (80-110 km/h) wind gusts in the mountains east and northeast of San Diego, with occasional gusts to hurricane force.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward today.
Strong winds not directly associated with Kay’s core wind field are
occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and damaging waves.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday…
Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches
Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 14W (Muifa)
According to the JTWC Warning number 15, sustained winds were 70 knots with gusts to near 85 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicates that 14W continues to improve and consolidate its central convection. In the past few hours, convective cover has radially expanded and is now thoroughly obscuring the low level circulation center. A microwave image reveals that while overall convection has improved, the system has failed to produce an eye and consolidate around that feature.
TS 14W continues to track northwestward under the steering influence of the ridge to the east. The repressive tropical upper troposphere trough (tutt) that was suppressing convection on the western side of 14W, has moved off to the west, allowing the system to greatly increase its convective envelope and get frustratingly close to eye development.
Over the next 12 hours, 14W will continue to develop, eventually reaching typhoon strength. as the system continues to intensify to a possible peak of 110 knots by 48 hours, the steering flow surrounding the system becomes eerily similar to 12W and with a similarly negative outcome.
A near equatorial ridge will set up to the south, a ridge will bar the path to the northeast and another ridge will prevent escape to the northwest, as this sets up, track speeds will slow considerably through 72 hours.
Between 48 and 72 hours, the system will reach its peak intensity near 110 knots and possibly higher, meanwhile, a very deep upper-level trough moving in from the west will reorient the steering ridge providing a deflection westward, moving 14W into the previous track of 12W.
Over the next 12 hours the system remains over a sizable cold pool east of Taiwan that will cause significant weakening as the system passes over it. As a result, down track intensity will have an inverse relationship to the duration of time the systems are in this cold pool.
Therefor, by 96 hours, as the system finally regains northward progression thanks to a passing mid-latitude trough, 14W will be on a weakening trend. As the system continues into the East China Sea by 120 hours, it will have lost a significant portion of its intensity, but will likely still be a typhoon strength tropical cyclone.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92W which is located approximately 672 NM southeast of Tokyo, Japan
Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a fully obscured low level circulation with flaring convection directly overhead and 20 knot winds to the southeast.
Environmental analysis shows 92W is in a low (10-15 knots) vertical
wind shear environment with good equatorial outflow, both favorable
Global models are in generally good agreement that 92W will gradually consolidate and intensify tracking west over the next few days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93W which is located approximately 479 NM west-northwest of Wake Island
Animated infrared satellite imagery show a fully exposed low level circulation tracking to the west.
Environmental analysis shows 93w is in a low (10-15 knots) vertical wind shear environment with good equatorial outflow, both favorable for development.
Global models are all in agreement that 93W will track north and develop over the next several days. Sea surface temperatures are on the cool side.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.