By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Ma-on)…is located approximately 157 NM west-southwest of Hong Kong
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Tokage)…is located approximately 487 NM east of Misawa, Japan
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHCCentral Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
Northwest Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Ma-on)
According to the JTWC Warning number 15, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to near 70 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicates a partially-exposed low-level circulation center positioned on the northern edge of a large area of persistent deep convection, which is shearing over the southern semi-circle due to high northeasterly vertical wind shear.
Environmental conditions have remained marginal with strong northeasterly vertical wind shear offset by moderate equatorward outflow.
TS 10W is forecast to track west-northwestward to westward through the forecast period with landfall expected near 18 hours. TS 10W will gradually weaken over the next 18 hours as it tracks under high northeasterly vertical wind shear.
After 18 hours, the system will rapidly dissipate as it tracks inland over the
rugged terrain of northern Vietnam.
Tropical Cyclone 11W (Tokage)
According to the JTWC Warning number 12, sustained winds were 70 knots with gusts to near 85 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts rapidly weakening core convection with a ragged 10 NM eye and deep convection displaced primarily over the eastern semicircle..
Upper-level analysis depicts a shortwave trough positioned over the western periphery of the system, although strong diffluence and robust equatorward outflow is still present, which is maintaining the core convection and weak eye for now..
TY 11W is forecast to recurve and accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it rounds the ridge axis over the next 12 to 36 hours.
TY 11W should begin to weaken rapidly as it begins to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and increasing (25 knot) vertical wind shear, and commences extra-tropical transition (ett) by 36 hours.
The system will complete ett as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and gains frontal characteristics.