By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard)…is located 430 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 09E
DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HOWARD
Howard is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this generalmotion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by weakening.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
Well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form well southeast or south of the main Hawaiian Islands Monday or Tuesday.
Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form as it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
>>> A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Some gradual development of this system is possible through the middle part of this week while it moves westward toward the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 426 NM west-northwest of Manila, Philippines
According to the JTWC…animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad, disorganized circulation in the South China Sea.
Environmental analysis shows more of an equatorward outflow. Animated total precipitable water data indicates an abundance of deep moisture in the centralized region of 97W, but somewhat drier conditions to the north, and broad turning in the wind fields with an increase in convective activity.
A steady decrease in shear, low vertical wind shear (5-10 knot), seasonal low level southwesterlies, and warm sea surface temperatures add to the likelihood of further development.
Global models agree that 97W is likely to develop a large wind field and expected to be more asymmetrical and reminiscent of a monsoon depression with higher winds on the outskirts of the system rather than wrapping towards the center.
Models suggest the low level circulation associated with 97W will track westward initially, followed by a counter-clockwise loop, before ultimately moving northward after 48 hours.
Beyond 48 hours, the monsoon depression is expected to consolidate down to a more defined center and may squeeze out some tropical depression or tropical storm criteria winds as it tracks northward towards the coast of southern china by 60 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.