By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard)…is located 540 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard)
HOWARD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM
Howard is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a motion to the west on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to become a remnant low by early Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
>>> Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
An area of low pressure could form later this week within a broad trough several hundred miles south-southeast of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual
development of this system as it moves quickly westward to the south of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 260 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong
According to the JTWC…the system is currently classified as a monsoon depression, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, greater than 600nm diameter, with extensive gale-force winds over the southeastern periphery and a weak core of light winds.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a poorly-organized, broad low-level circulation with multiple mesovortices along the southern periphery. These mesovortices are rotating cyclonically about a centroid (representing the current position) with extensive deep convective banding displaced over the eastern periphery wrapping into the northeast quadrant.
Upper-level analysis indicates marginally-favorable conditions with low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear and strong poleward outflow. Sea surface temperature values of are conducive for further intensification.
Global models indicate the system will continue to slowly consolidate and transition into a warm-core tropical cyclone as it tracks north over the next 24 hours then curves west towards the Gulf of Tonkin.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90W which is located approximately 660 NM south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan
According to the JTWC…animated multi-spectral satellite imagery indicates a broad low-level circulation (llc) with disorganized bursts of deep convection. A color composite microwave image shows a poorly-organized llc with chaotic bands of shallow convection and no discernible center.
The system is located under a region of divergent upper-level easterly flow with low vertical wind shear.
Global models indicate a west-northwestward to northwestward track over the next 1-2 days with weak development.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.