Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 180 NM northeast of Beira, Mozambique – Final Warning

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy – Final Warning

According to JTWC Warning number 60, sustained winds were 80 knots, with gusts to 100 knots.

TC 11S made landfall at 11/1800z approximately 15 NM northeast of Quelimane; unfortunately, surface observations ceased after the 11/1500z report, which indicated southwesterly winds at 38 knots.

The system has continued inland while weakening with animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicating the loss of the eye feature and rapid weakening of the core convection as well as erosion of spiral banding over water.

TC 11S is forecast to track slowly west-northwestward along the northeastern flank of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the southwest, but is expected to become quasi-stationary from 24 to 48 hours as competing steering develops. TC 11S is forecast to rapidly weaken through the forecast period and should dissipate by 48 hours.

Deterministic model guidance is in fair agreement but is consistent on the west-northwestward track through 24 hours. After 24 hours, guidance diverges with significant differences in the timing of the eastward u-turn. All the consensus models, however, indicate that TC 11S will remain over land at least 48 hours, and also show an eventual track back over water in the 60 to 84 hour time frame.

Probabilistic guidance from lends additional confidence to the timing of the potential regeneration over water with the bulk of solutions over water in the 60 to 84 hours time frame.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90P…which is located approximately 196 NM north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent deep convection along the southern semicircle of a broad low-level circulation center (llcc). A microwave image reveals formative, fragmented banding wrapping into an elongated but defined llcc.

The system is located along the northern periphery of an upper-level anticyclone within a marginally favorable environment characterized by low to moderate (15 to 20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear and broad diffluence aloft. Sea surface temperature values are warm, however, frictional effects associated with Vanuatu will hinder significant development.

Global models indicate a slow, erratic southward to southwestward track over the next two days with gradual development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 122 NM west-northwest of Niue Island.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation (llc) with rapidly organizing deep convection overhead. A microwave image reveals a compact system with deep convection offset in the eastern periphery along with convective banding wrapping into a weak microwave eye.

The system is currently in a favorable environment characterized by near radial outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 91P will continue to track east-southeastward as it gradually develops over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.