Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90P…which is located approximately 350 NM north-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a disorganized system with flaring convection in the southern semicircle of a developing low level
circulation (llc).

The system is currently in a favorable environment with moderate poleward outflow, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement that Invest 90P will track generally south-southeast toward New Caledonia over the next 48-72 hours with the GFS model being the most aggressive in terms of intensity.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 19 to 24 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 48 NM west-northwest of Niue.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a disorganized system with flaring convection. The most recent surface observation from Niue Airport at 140000z shows winds coming from the north at 15 knots

The system is currently in a marginal environment with moderate eastward outflow aloft, low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and
warm sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.