By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90P…which is located approximately 347 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with convection slightly displaced to the eastern periphery.
The system is currently in a marginally favorable environment with good poleward outflow, moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
The system is expected to continue on a southeastward track passing over New Caledonia while attempting to consolidate.
Global models are split on the intensification of the system with NAVGEM being the most aggressive, but they have a general consensus on the track to the southeast over New Caledonia, before turning back northwestward and fizzling out by 96 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 85 NM northwest of Niue Island.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a disorganized system with flaring convection in the southern semicircle of a developing low level circulation.
The system is currently in a favorable environment with moderate poleward outflow, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement that Invest 90P will track generally south-southeast toward New Caledonia over the next 48-72 hours with GFS being the most aggressive in terms of intensity.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 29 to 34 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.