Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kevin)…is located approximately 268 NM southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kevin)

According to JTWC Warning number 10, sustained winds were 130 knots, with gusts to 160 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a large system (620 NM across) that has further improved with deepening central convection and the emergence of an eye feature. Expansive feeder bands continue to trail from all quadrants.

TC Kevin will continue to track southeastward under the steering ridge. The favorable environment will sustain steady intensification to a peak of 100 knots by 24 hours; afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will slowly erode the system down to 45 knots by 72 hours.

Concurrently by 48 hours, TC 16P will begin subtropical transition and by 72 hours, will transform into a subtropical low with an expanding wind field.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 11S…which is located approximately 130 NM west-northwest of Europa Island

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad low-level circulation (llc) with limited convection offset to the southeastern periphery. A microwave pass further reveals convective banding wrapping into the southern periphery of llc from the northeast.

The remnants of 11S currently sits in a favorable environment characterized by robust poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models continue to become more aggressive with the intensification of the system as it tracks eastward across the Mozambique Channel over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 33 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as the remnants of 15P…which is located approximately 357 NM south of Tonga

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated imagery shows a defined circulation however, most of the convection is sheared to the east of the low level center as the storm has tracked into an area of high (40-50 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global models forecast that remnants of 15P will put up a good fight for the next 48-72 hours as it continues to track east-southeast against the increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 55 to 60 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.