Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kevin) / Invest 11S / Remnants of 15P
Saturday, March 4, 2023

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kevin)…is located approximately 389 NM south of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 38 NM west-southwest of Europa Island


Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kevin)

According to JTWC Warning number 13, sustained winds were 105 knots, with gusts to 130 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an unraveling system with convective banding becoming fragmented being wrapped into the low level circulation center.

TC Kevin is in a marginally favorable environment for further tropical activity. These conditions are characterized by constant poleward outflow aloft, moderate (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by cooler sea surface temperatures.

TC Kevin continues its southeastward track as it hugs the outer periphery of ridge to the east-northeast. By 12 hours, TC Kevin will continue to enter a more hostile environment characterized by stronger vertical wind shear and will decrease in intensity to 95 knots as a result.

By 24 hours, TC Kevin will continue its subtropical transition and will start to feel the effects of dry air entrainment from the northwest being wrapped into the center. By 36 hours, the system will become fully subtropical.


South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)

According to JTWC Warning number 45, sustained winds were 40 knots, with gusts to 50 knots.

Available meteorological data supports the regeneration of TC 11S, therefore, the JTWC has resumed warnings.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a partially exposed low level circulation center under the northwest portion of an area of flaring convection.

Environmental analysis reveals TC 11S is dealing with a good amount of dry air entrainment in the western periphery, but that is not expected to last. TC Freddy is in a favorable environment for further tropical development.

These conditions are characterized by robust eastward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Freddy has regenerated over the southern Mozambique Channel after spending the past couple of days struggling between the near equatorial ridge to the north-northeast and the subtropical ridge to the south-southeast.

After spending several hours in a quasi-stationary posture, TC Freddy is expected to be steered by the ridge to the north-northeast and head east-southeastward through 36 hours. As this occurs, TC 11S will gradually increase in intensity to 65 knots.

Afterwards, TC Freddy will make a dramatic turn northwestward as another ridge from the southwest builds into the area. While heading northwestward, TC Freddy will continue to increase in intensity to 85 knots by 96 hours, then drop to 70 knots by 120 hours.


Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as the remnants of 15P…which is located approximately 418 NM south-southeast of Tonga

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

The remnants of TC 15P (Judy) has been completely decoupled and will remain over cooler sea surface temperatures over the next 24-48 hours.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery show a well-defined, fully exposed low level circulation center with the parent convection sheared to the east due to intense (60-70 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global numerical models show TC 15P tracking eastward with little to no further tropical development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 48 to 52 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.