By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 188 NM southeast of Europa Island
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)
According to JTWC Warning number 49, sustained winds were 50 knots, with gusts to 65 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an improving mass of convection blooming over an assessed low level circulation center (llcc). Another image shows fragmented bands
of convection in the southeastern periphery wrapping into the evaluated llcc.
Environmental analysis reveals TC 11S continues to struggle with a good amount of dry air entrainment in the western periphery, however, the system is actively gaining mid-level moisture. TC Freddy is in a favorable environment for further tropical development.
These conditions are characterized by moderate eastward outflow aloft, low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
TC Freddy has slowed down in track speed and shifted its direction westward as the result of two competing steering mechanisms: the ridge to the northeast and the ridge to the southwest. This will change in the near future as TC Freddy will take a northwestward track due to the ridge in the southwest edging into the area.
Between 12 and 24 hours, TC 11S will begin to head northwestward and slowly increase in intensity to 55 knots due to an improving structure and regaining more mid-level moisture. Between 36 and 48 hours, TC 11S will continue to intensify and reach 65 knots due to entering an increasingly favorable environment.
In addition, TC Freddy will pick-up track speed while heading into the central Mozambique Channel. Between 72 and 96 hours, TC 11S will reach 75 knots as the system passes over a pool of higher ocean heat content just off the coast of Mozambique. By 120 hours, the system will reach its max intensity of 80 knots as it makes its approach to the coast northeast of Quelimane, Mozambique.
Southwest Pacific Ocean
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 16P…located approximately 583 NM south-southeast of Tonga.
The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with convection sheared to the southeast. Another image shows copious amounts of dry air being wrapped in the llcc from the north-northeast.
Environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for TC development due to high (40-60 knot) vertical wind shear, strong eastward outflow aloft and cooler sea surface temperatures.
Global models agree that the remnants of TC 16P will continue to track south-southeast and decay as a subtropical system.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 57 to 63 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.