By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 589 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)
According to JTWC Warning number 33, sustained winds were 135 knots, with gusts to 165 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a recovering system that previously underwent a small period of deterioration. TC Freddy is beginning to reshape back into a symmetrical system and now has a cloud filled eye. A microwave eye is present, indicating a better structure than the previous forecast.
Analysis of the high resolution GFS and HWRF models indicates the dry air that was previously affecting the mid-levels is beginning to give way to increasing moisture. Environmental analysis indicates TC 11S to be in favorable conditions for continual tropical development. These conditions are characterized by consistent westerly outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
TC Freddy continues its west-southwestward track as it transits the northern periphery of the ridge to the south. The system will continue this trajectory and gradually increase in intensity to 120 knots by 48 hours due to entering an improving environment.
Copious amounts of dry air will continue to surround the system, however, TC Freddy will stay cocooned in its own moisture pocket during its forecast track.
TC 11S is forecast to make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar after 72 hours and decrease in intensity to 50 knots by 96 hours due to land interaction. By 120 hours, the system is forecast to re-intensify as it transits over the Mozambique Channel.
Northwest Pacific Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W…which is located approximately 220 NM east of Davao, Philippines
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave pass reveal an area of broad and disorganized convection, gradually consolidating into a low-level circulation along an elongated trough axis.
Environmental analysis shows that 99W is in a favorable area for development as supported by good poleward outflow channels, low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Deterministic models and a majority of ensemble members are in agreement that this circulation will continue along a north-northwestern trajectory along the east coast of the Philippines and will consolidate to a more organized circulation over the next 48-72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.