By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 50 NM east of Europa Island
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)…is located approximately 524 NM south of Diego Garcia
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)
According to JTWC Warning number 41, sustained winds were 30 knots, with gusts to 40 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has been stripped of deep convection after it tracked across southern
Madagascar, exposing a ragged low level circulation that is about to exit into the Mozambique Channel.
Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable due to interaction with the rugged terrain.
TC Freddy will exit into the Mozambique Channel over the next few hours and track westward under the steering ridge then make a final landfall over southern Mozambique shortly after 36 hours.
The warm waters of the Mozambique Channel, moderate outflow, and low vertical wind shear will fuel a modest intensification to 60 knots by 36 hours.
After its final landfall, the rugged terrain of Mozambique will rapidly erode the system to dissipation by 72 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)
According to JTWC Warning number 2, sustained winds were 50 knots, with gusts to 65 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a consolidating
medium-sized system with flaring central convection and formative rain bands feeding in from the southern periphery.
TC 14S will continue on a generally southwestward track under the ridge. The favorable environment will fuel intensification to a peak of 55 knots at 36-48 hours.
Afterward, equilibrium in the environmental dynamics will sustain an intensity around 50 knots for the remainder of the forecast.