By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 48 NM west-southwest of Europa Island
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)…is located approximately 778 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)
According to JTWC Warning number 42, sustained winds were 50 knots, with gusts to 65 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a low level circulation center (llcc) with thick convective bands wrapping into the llcc in the northern and eastern quadrants. The observations from Europa island both reported 56 knots of wind from the north-northeast after the system passed to the north of the island.
Environmental analysis indicates TC 11S to be in favorable conditions for continual tropical activity. These conditions are characterized by consistent westward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
TC Freddy continues its westward track as it transits the northern periphery of the ridge to the south. The system will continue its westward trajectory and gradually increase in intensity to 55 knots by 12 hours as it makes its approach to the coast of Mozambique. This increase in intensity will be the result of continual wrapping of convective bands around the center of the llcc. In addition, the sea surface temperatures will increase closer the storm moves to the coast.
it should be noted that the high resolution comaps-tc intensity guidance continues to indicate rapid intensification as TC Freddy transits over the Mozambique Channel. By 24 hours, TC 11S will decrease to 40 knots after it makes landfall near Vilankulos, Mozambique. By 36 hours, TC Freddy will dissipate as a 30 knot system further inland.
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)
According to JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds were 75 knots, with gusts to 90 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a relatively tight ball of convection with evidence of rugged, fragmented banding in the southern periphery. A partial 230155z image reveals the presence of a microwave eye, and a bullseye pass shows the system to be fairly organized albeit somewhat small in nature with a couple of 50 knot wind barbs present near the core.
Environmental analysis indicates TC Enala to be in favorable conditions for continual tropical activity. These conditions are characterized by consistent poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
TC Enala continues its south-southwestward track as it transits the northwestern periphery of the ridge to the southeast. TC 14S will continue to receive robust outflow aloft as it makes its way further south, assisting in maintaining its TC strength. One limiting factor is the dry air wrapping into the system from the northwest, however, TC Enala is expected to hold on to its moisture for a majority of the forecast track.
The system will continue its south-southwestward trajectory and gradually decrease in intensity to 50 knots by 36 hours due to entering a more hostile environment characterized by stronger vertical wind shear. Between 72 and 96 hours, TC Enala will pass over cooler sea surface temperatures and will continue to decrease in intensity as a result.