By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 289 NM west of Europa Island – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)…is located approximately 708 NM east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy) – Final Warning
According to JTWC Warning number 44, sustained winds were 50 knots, with gusts to 65 knots.
TC 11S (Freddy) has made landfall near Bambe, Mozambique. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a fairly symmetrical system with thick convective bands wrapping into a low level circulation center (llcc) with the heaviest convection in the eastern and southern
The surface observation from Vilanculos, Mozambique reported a shift in the winds from west-northwest to northwest at 27 knots with gusts of 37 knots as the system passed approximately 40 NM south of the station.
TC Freddy continues its westward track as it transits across southern Mozambique. The system will continue its westward trajectory and gradually decrease in intensity to 40 knots by 12 hours. By 24 hours, TC Freddy will make a slight turn to the west-northwest and further decrease to 30 knots.
TC Freddy continues its westward track as it transits the northern periphery of the ridge to the south. The system will continue its westward trajectory and gradually increase in intensity to 55 knots by 12 hours as it makes its approach to the coast of Mozambique. This increase in intensity will be the result of continual wrapping of convective bands around the center of the llcc. In addition, the sea surface temperatures will increase closer the storm moves to the coast.
The jtwc track consensus members are in agreement with a continual westward track, followed by a west-northwestward shift after 24 hours. The NAVGEM tracker is the outlier which drives the system southward after 12 hours, then a dramatic turn eastward and back over water by 48 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)
According to JTWC Warning number 6, sustained winds were 65 knots, with gusts to 80 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low level circulation center with the associated deep convection being displaced to the southern periphery. TC Enala is currently battling dry air entrainment from the northwest quadrant as it continues to transit south-southwestward.
Environmental analysis indicates TC Enala to be in favorable conditions for continual tropical activity. These conditions are characterized by consistent poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
TC Enala continues its south-southwestward track as it transits the northwestern periphery of the ridge to the southeast. Although struggling to keep its moisture due to the dry air entrainment, TC 14S will continue to receive robust upper level outflow as it makes its way further south, assisting in maintaining
its TC structure.
The system will continue its south-southwestward trajectory and gradually decrease in intensity to 55 knots by 72 hours due to entering a more hostile environment characterized by stronger (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.
Between 72 and 120 hours, TC Enala will be in a quasi-stationary posture as the ridge to the southeast will give way to an approaching major shortwave trough from the west. The vertical wind shear will decrease just before the trough passes near the system, giving TC 14S an opportunity to regain some intensity during this time.
Southwest Pacific Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94P…which is located approximately 344 NM northeast of Nadi, Fiji
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation with building convection in the northern and eastern quadrants. This circulation appears to be a spinner associated with a much broader area of troughing as indicated on a recent scatterometry image.
Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 94P is in a marginal area for tropical development characterized by moderate (35-40 knot) equatorward upper level outflow, very warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear.
Although Invest 94P is not too impressive on satellite, NAVGEM, ICON, and GFS deterministic along with GEFS ensemble guidance shows the disturbance heading westward into a more favorable
environment and consolidating over the next 48-72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development is upgraded to medium.