By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)…is located approximately 740 NM southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 15P…is located approximately 346 NM north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)
According to JTWC Warning number 10, sustained winds were 45 knots, with gusts to 55 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a deteriorating
system inundated by strong northwesterly vertical wind shear, partly exposing the low level circulation.
The environment is marginal with the strong poleward outflow offset by strong vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures.
TC Enala will track south-southwestward under the ridge up to 24 hours. Afterward, a secondary ridge to the west will compete for steering, forcing the cyclone in a quasi-stationary (qs) looping mode.
The marginal environment will sustain the current intensity up to 24 hours at best; afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will lead to dissipation by 48 hours, possibly sooner, while the system is in a qs looping motion.
Southwest Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 15P
According to JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.