Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala) / Tropical Cyclone 15P (Judy) / Invest 96P
Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala)…is located approximately 702 NM southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 15P (Judy)…is located approximately 44 NM north-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu


South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Enala) Final Warning

According to JTWC Warning number 14, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.

Based off structure analysis of TC 14S and the surrounding environment, the system is being identified as a hybrid system sharing both tropical and sub-tropical characteristics.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an exposed low level circulation center with the associated deep convection decoupled over the eastern periphery due to the strong (35-40 knot) vertical wind shear. TC Enala is currently battling dry air entrainment from the northwest quadrant as it struggles to maintain its tropical nature.

Environmental analysis indicates TC Enala to be in unfavorable conditions for continual tropical activity. These conditions are characterized by consistent eastward outflow aloft, a strong vorticity signature, offset by strong (35-40 knot) vertical wind shear and borderline warm sea surface temperatures.

Complete subtropical transition for TC Enala is imminent. TC Enala continues its quasi-stationary posture as the ridge to the southwest slowly re-positions itself to the southeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TC 14S will continue to struggle to keep its moisture due to consistent dry air entrainment throughout the forecast period. In addition, strong vertical wind shear will continue to effect TC Enala and will play a key role in further decay of the system.


Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15P (Judy)

According to JTWC Warning number 8, sustained winds were 85 knots, with gusts to 105 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a mass of blooming convection with thick convective bands wrapping into an assessed low level circulation center. Unfortunately, no useful microwave imagery came in for any further analysis during this forecast cycle. However, based off the older image, there was an indication of a microwave eye.

Environmental analysis indicates TC Judy to be in favorable conditions for continual tropical development. These conditions are characterized by consistent poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, a strong vorticity signature, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Judy continues its southward track as it crosses the ridge axis to the east. After 12 hours, the system will shift south-southeastward and increase in intensity to 80 knots. TC Judy will then increase in intensity again to 85 knots as it makes a further shift southeastward by 24 hours.

By 48 hours, TC 15P will pick-up track speed and decrease in intensity to 75 knots as it will begin to enter a more hostile environment characterized by stronger vertical wind shear and continuous dry air from the west being wrapped into the system.

By 72 hours, TC Judy will cross over relatively cooler sea surface temperatures and begin to make its transition to a subtropical system. By 96 hours, TC 15P will become fully subtropical.


>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96P…which is located approximately 386 NM east-southeast of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.

Animated enhanced multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image reveal a small area of flaring convection displaced to the west of a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc).

Invest 96P currently sits in a marginally favorable environment due to high (35-40 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by warm sea surface temperatures, and good poleward outflow.

Global models agree on an initial track towards Vanuatu. The system is expected to steadily consolidate and intensify over the next 36-48 days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.