By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Judy)…is located approximately 273 NM southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu
Tropical Cyclone 16P…is located approximately 437 NM west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu
Southwest Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Judy)
According to JTWC Warning number 12, sustained winds were 100 knots, with gusts to 125 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts a symmetrical system with deep convective bands in the eastern and southern peripheries wrapping into an assessed low level circulation center. Unfortunately, there were no useful microwave imagery passes during this forecast cycle.
TC Judy is in a marginally favorable environment for further tropical activity. These conditions are characterized by constant poleward outflow aloft, moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
TC Judy continues its southeastward track as it hugs the outer periphery of the ridge to the east-northeast. By 12 hours, the system will enter a more hostile environment characterized by stronger vertical wind shear and will decrease in intensity to 100 knots as a result.
By 24 hours, the system will begin its subtropical transition and a further decrease in intensity to 90 knots is anticipated as the system crosses into cooler sea surface temperatures.
By 36 hours, TC Judy will continue its sub-tropical transition and will start to feel the effects of dry air entrainment from the northwest being wrapped into the center. By 48 hours TC Judy will become fully subtropical.
Tropical Cyclone 16P
According to JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds were 40 knots, with gusts to 50 knots.
South Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 11S…which is located approximately 98 NM north-northeast of Maxixe, Mozambique.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a disorganized mass of convection with a deep convective band in the eastern periphery wrapping into an assessed low level circulation (llc).
JTWC has been tracking the remnants of TC 11S (Freddy) as it has meandered over southern Mozambique and southeast Zimbabwe during the past several days. Model guidance does suggest the surface circulation will make its way back over the Mozambique Channel throughout the next 18-36 hours.
Although the deterministic and ensemble models are not very excited about TC strength regeneration, the possibility remains due to the favorable environment characterized by low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.
The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.