By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Judy)…is located approximately 451 NM south of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kevin)…is located approximately 109 NM west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu
Southwest Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Judy)
According to JTWC Warning number 17, sustained winds were 75 knots, with gusts to 90 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a medium-sized system has begun to gradually weaken as evidenced by warming and unraveling central convection.
Analysis indicates an unfavorable environment with strong outflow offset by strong vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures.
TC Judy will continue to track southeastward under the steering ridge. The unfavorable environment will slowly then rapidly erode the system down to 50 knots by 36 hours.
Concurrently by 24 hours, TC 15P will begin subtropical transition and by 36 hours, will transform into a subtropical low with an expanding wind field.
Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kevin)
According to JTWC Warning number 6, sustained winds were 80 knots, with gusts to 100 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a large system that has maintained deep, flaring central convection and expansive feeder bands trailing mostly from the northern peripheries.
Analysis indicates an overall favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong outflow offset by moderate to strong vertical wind shear.
TC Kevin will continue to track southeastward under the steering ridge. The favorable environment will fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 95 knots by 36 hours, afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will slowly erode the system down to 45 knots by 96 hours.
Concurrently by 72 hours, TC 16P will begin subtropical transition and by 96 hours, will transform into a subtropical low with an expanding wind field.
South Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 11S…which is located approximately 133 NM west of Europa Island
Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad low-level circulation (llc) with limited convection offset to the southeastern periphery. A microwave pass further reveals convective banding wrapping into the southern periphery of llc from the northeast.
The remnants of 11S currently sits in a favorable environment characterized by robust poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
models continue to become more aggressive with the intensification of the system as it tracks eastward across the Mozambique Channel over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.