Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)…is located approximately 553 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Freddy)

According to JTWC Warning number 29, sustained winds were 120 knots, with gusts to 145 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a well-defined and highly symmetric tropical cyclone with a 7 NM pinhole eye. A microwave image depicts a robust and well -defined eye wall with limited cloud features extending outward
from the central dense overcast indicative of an annular tropical cyclone.

TC 11S is forecast to continue its westward march and based on its annular characteristics, it has demonstrated a proclivity for cocooning itself and resisting the shear and dry environment that surrounds it. Through 12 hours, based on this cocooning and otherwise positive environmental conditions, (warm sea surface temperatures and good divergence aloft) Freddy will likely retain most of its current intensity.

After 12 hours the system will begin to slowly weaken as it continues westward under the steering influence of the ridge to the south. As the steering ridge struggles to build westward, the system will gradually steady up on a west-southwestward course.

In the extended track, 11S is forecast to increase speed as the ridge consolidates and reorients, forcing the still typhoon strength system towards Madagascar.

Northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W…which is located approximately 106 NM south-southeast of Palau

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad low-level circulation with deep convection offset in the western semicircle. Recent surface observations at Palau reveal winds up to 10 knots just to the north of the system.

Environmental analysis indicates unfavorable conditions with high (40-50 knot) easterly vertical wind shear and minimal outflow aloft. Sea surface temperatures remains conducive.

Global models are in general agreement that 99W will have little development as it tracks northwestward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 102 NM north of Mornington Island, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and animated radar imagery depict a disorganized low-level circulation…with a broad and elongated circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals that invest 91P is in a marginal environment for intensification due to moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, moderate poleward outflow aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 91P will track southeastward before recurving southwest, making landfall over Northern Australia within the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.