Tropical Cyclone 10P / Invest 08S
Saturday, January 21, 2023

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 10P…is located approximately 204 NM west of Noumea, New Caledonia – Final Warning

 

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10P Final Warning

According to JTWC Warning number 2, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center with deep convection sheared off to the east. A scatterometer image indicates that 30-35 knot winds persist to the south of the circulation.

As evidenced by the fully exposed appearance in msi imagery, copious amounts of dry air has infiltrated the circulation as well as increasing vertical wind shear. These factors are quickly dominating the environment, which will result in a gradual weakening trend through the forecast period.

10P is forecast to continue tracking generally southeastward under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge to the north. By 12 hours, 10P will be preparing for a sharp poleward shift, as a ridge to the east builds in. The system will dissipate near 12 hours and begin a poleward track, continuing to weaken by 24 hours and beyond.

Numerical models are in good agreement that 10P will maintain course through 12 hours, after which the system turns poleward. Reliable model intensity guidance is also in good agreement, with all members weakening the system through the forecast period.

 

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 08S…which is located approximately 136 NM east of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts a fully obscured broad building circulation, with its center of convection offset to the west.

Environmental analysis indicates Invest 08S is forecast to redevelop if it enters the Mozambique Channel, due to low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, good poleward upper level outflow and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 08S will track southwestward and redevelop after reentering open water on or around 24 January.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development is low