Tropical Cyclone 08S (Cheneso)
Monday, January 23, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Cheneso)…is located approximately 176 NM northeast of Europa Island

 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Cheneso)

According to JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery verify that tropical storm Cheneso has moved into the Mozambique Channel and re-intensified. Low frequency microwave imagery shows well organized banding wrapping around a clear low level circulation center while the upper frequencies confirm an increase in deep convection.

The system exists in a nearly ideal environment with low vertical
wind shear, saturation throughout the column, and warm sea water temperatures.

TC 08S is wedged between the near equatorial ridge, which is anchored in an anticyclone near 10S 58E, and the subtropical ridge, which extends along the 30th latitude. Until those ridges weaken or shift the system has nowhere to go and will meander over the channel. Thus, upwelling will have a major influence on system intensity.

TC 08S will churn over the channel for the next 48 hours then begin a poleward track to the southwest as the subtropical ridge weakens and tracks downstream. Although the system will remain in a nearly ideal environment for the first 48 hours the slow storm motion will generate upwelling that will be an impediment to explosive development.

Peak intensity will occur near 96 hours as the system approaches the 24th latitude and begins a bend to the southeast. Enhanced poleward outlow will initially give the system a boost as it interacts with the mid-latitude westerlies. Once the system makes the turn, however, it will encounter increasing shear as it begins the extra-tropical transition process.